Theme for 2016:
Future Directions of Weather Forecasting and Reservoir Operations

September 6, 2016
Hyatt Regency Hotel, Sacramento, CA

Special Recognition Award

The 2016 Special Recognition Award was presented to Robert K. Hartman for 32 years with the National Weather Service where he was instrumental in pioneering the implementation of new science and technology into advanced hydrologic warning and forecast services. See the award language, biographical information, and hear the presentation on the Symposium's Rob Hartman award page.


Speaker Presentations

NOAA Plans for Improving Forecast Models and Computing

Tim Schneider
Physical Scientist
Global Systems Div.
Earth System Research Lab NOAA
Boulder, CO

Hear the presentation …

Abstract:

By selecting a state-of-the-art "non-hydrostatic" dynamical core for its new global modeling system, the Finite Volume on a Cubed Sphere (or FV3), NOAA is poised to greatly advance and simplify its operational numerical weather prediction modeling suite. Non-hydrostatic models allow for explicit representation and resolution of clouds, precipitation, and storm dynamics and makes it possible to plan for a unification of global and regional modeling scales. FV3 is highly efficient and adaptable on high performance computers, and has demonstrated skill at both weather and climate time scales. It has the ability to work with refined meshes and/or nests, allowing for very high resolutions over limited areas. NOAA is also conducting research and development on advancing our numerical weather modeling on new massively parallel fine-grain computers. These systems employ hundreds of thousands of processors and take advantage of complex and powerful configurations that integrate CPUs with graphical processing units (GPUs) or many integrated cores (MICs).

The new global model based on FV3 will be implemented in a flexible and scalable modeling framework call the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) and will include new physics and advanced data assimilation. The first instance of the new global system is anticipated in 2019.


Ensemble Forecasting Replacing Deterministic Forecasting: Why is This Important?

Rob Hartman
Hydrologist-in-Charge
California-Nevada River Forecast Center
National Weather Service, NOAA
Sacramento, CA

Hear the presentation …

Abstract:

[Abstract not available]


Research on Atmospheric Rivers to Improve West Coast Predictions

Andrew Martin, Ph.D.
Assistant Project Scientist
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego
La Jolla, CA

Hear the presentation …

Abstract:

[Abstract not available]


Importance of Water Vapor and Wind Observations to Predicting Precipitation

Allen White, Ph.D.
Research Meteorologist
Hydrometeorology Observations and Processes
Earth System Research Lab, NOAA
Boulder, CO

Hear the presentation …

Abstract:

Winds and water vapor are key ingredients in the winter storms that impact California on an annual basis. This presentation will explore how these important variables interact to produce precipitation when aided by lift provided by California's vast topographic barriers. Observations made available through investments by the California Department of Water Resources and NOAA's Hydrometeorology Testbed provide the basis for many of the research results shown here. Aircraft field campaigns and satellite measurements provide the offshore context of these storms, including the presence of atmospheric rivers, narrow regions of enhanced water vapor transport that are crucial to California's annual precipitation. Reanalysis datasets are used to show how gaps in terrain along the Coast Ranges and Sierra Nevada provide corridors for the winds to carry the atmospheric moisture inland, where it can produce orographic precipitation throughout the intermountain West and Southwest.


Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations at Lake Mendocino

Marty Ralph, Ph.D.
Director
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego
La Jolla, CA

Hear the presentation …

Abstract:

[Abstract not available]


Integrating Weather Forecasts into Folsom Reservoir Operations

Brad Moore
Hydrologist
Sacramento District
US Army Corps of Engineers
Sacramento, CA

Hear the presentation …

Abstract:

Completion of the Joint Federal Project spillway at Folsom Dam requires the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to update the Folsom Water Control Manual. The manual defines the maximum allowable storage before flood releases are required and required flood releases when the allowable storage is exceeded. This presentation will describe the tentatively selected flood operation, which relies on inflow forecasts provided by the California Nevada River Forecast Center. The presentation will compare the operation to other alternatives, describe how forecast information is processed and used, and describe testing to account for forecast uncertainty.


Forecast-Coordinated Operations at New Bullards Bar and Oroville Reservoirs

Boone Lek, P.E.
Section Chief
Reservoir Coordinated Operations
California Department of Water Resources
Sacramento, CA

Hear the presentation …

Abstract:

[Abstract not available]


Panel Discussion:
What future research steps do you think would improve forecast information which is useful for reservoir operations?

Hear the presentation …

Moderator:

Mike Anderson, Ph.D., P.E.
State Climatologist
California Dept. of Water Resources
Sacramento, CA

Panelists:

Rob Hartman
Hydrologist-in-Charge
California-Nevada River Forecast Center
National Weather Service, NOAA
Sacramento, CA
Boone Lek, P.E.
Section Chief
Reservoir Coordinated Operations
California Department of Water Resources
Sacramento, CA
Andrew Martin, Ph.D.
Assistant Project Scientist
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego
La Jolla, CA
Brad Moore
Hydrologist
Sacramento District
US Army Corps of Engineers
Sacramento, CA
Marty Ralph, Ph.D.
Director
Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego
La Jolla, CA
Tim Schneider
Physical Scientist
Global Systems Div.
Earth System Research Lab NOAA
Boulder, CO
Allen White, Ph.D.
Research Meteorologist
Hydrometeorology Observations and Processes
Earth System Research Lab, NOAA
Boulder, CO

Sponsors

Rain Sponsors — $500+

MBK Engineers
HDR
West Consultants, Inc.
Balance Hydrologics, Inc.
Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency
Alert Users Group

Shower Sponsors — $250+

David Ford Consulting Engineers
Wood Rodgers
NHC - Northwest Hydraulic Consultants
CEPSYM is a Floodplain Management Association project

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