Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes

SPECIAL RECOGNITION AWARD

Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes

Since its founding in 2014, the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) has significantly increased the knowledge and value of extreme precipitation forecasts to benefit the public of California and other Western States through collaborative and innovative research, monitoring, and applications programs.

The mission of CW3E is providing 21st Century water cycle science, technology, and outreach to address impacts of extreme weather and water events on the environment, people, and economy. Studying atmospheric river (AR) science has been the primary focus because ARs are the source of 80% of the largest floods and about half of California's annual rainfall and snowpack, as well as most of its year-to-year fluctuations between drought and plenty. CW3E's AR focus has borne important benefits in terms of managing hazards, floods, droughts, hydropower, ecosystems, agriculture, and long-term water-supply adaptations for the extremely variable precipitation regime and changing climate.

CW3E has steadily increased the understanding, forecast skill, and communications regarding AR storms by developing new scientific theories, observations, models, analytic methods, visualizations, and decision support tools for forecasters, emergency responders, water managers, and the public. For example, the Center's AR Scale of intensity is widely used to better communicate the likelihoods of benefits and hazards from forecasted AR landfalls.

To push storm-forecast skills to higher precision, CW3E has led the development and operationalization of the multiagency AR Reconnaissance Program (AR Recon) which flies airplanes through, sails ships under, and visualizes with satellites from above to observe atmospheric rivers days before hitting the US west coast. AR Recon data are operationally fed into global weather-prediction models here and in Europe. CW3E also developed and operationally supports an AR-attuned forecast model (West WRF) for better precipitation prediction and is leading research to improve forecast skill using machine learning.

CW3E helped pioneer, develop, organize, and lead detailed multiagency, multidisciplinary assessments of Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) for six California reservoirs and 14 in Washington and Oregon. FIRO is a flexible water management approach using data from watershed monitoring and improved weather forecasting to help water managers more selectively retain or release water from reservoirs for increased resilience to droughts and floods. The value and application of FIRO is now broadly recognized in US and international water management communities as an essential adaptation strategy for responding to greater demands on water resources and anticipated climate change.

The accomplishments of CW3E (in its first 10 years) have reached beyond the Western US to national, regional, and international communities. Understanding and forecasting ARs has materially reduced the risks from storm-driven hazards and garnered water resource and economic benefits in California. With extreme gratitude, we honor the people of CW3E for your excellent service and achievements with this award presented on the 11th of July, 2024.