Theme for 2003:
Forecasting Extreme Precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and Implications for the American River Watershed

June 6, 2003
California State University, Sacramento

Speaker Presentations

Connecting the Dots: Fish, Groundwater, and Weather

Tim Washburn
Agency Counsel
Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency
Sacramento, CA

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to connect the dots linking the three topics of this LAR Science Conference: forecasting of extreme flood events, groundwater management and fish and aquatic habitat. The discussion begins with a historical perspective on the events that have driven these topics to the top of the water resource planning and management agenda along the Lower American River. This perspective will lay the groundwork for assessing the substantive connections between the three topics and for outlining what the conference might accomplish with respect to pursuing these connections. The author is Agency Counsel for the Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency (SAFCA). The discussion reflects his experience over the past fifteen years in fashioning a strategic plan for managing the risk of flood damage in the heavily urbanized American River floodplain.

Extreme Precipitation in the American River Basin

Maurice (Maury) Roos
Chief Hydrologist (part time)
Division of Flood Management
California Department of Water Resources
Sacramento, CA

Abstract:

[Abstract not available]

The Potential for Adaptive Reservoir Operations Provided by Forecast Information

Beth Faber, Ph.D.
Research Hydraulic Engineer
Water Resource Systems Division
Hydrologic Engineering Center
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Davis, CA

Abstract:

[Abstract not available]

Spring Forecast Based Operations, Folsom Dam, California

Paul E. Pugner, P.E.
Chief
Water Management Section
Sacramento District
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Sacramento, CA

Abstract:

[Abstract not available]

Precipitation Structure in the Sierra Nevada of California in Winter

Daniel R. Cayan, Ph.D.
Research Meteorologist
Climate Research Division
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of California, San Diego
La Jolla CA

Abstract:

Influences of upper air characteristics along the coast of California upon wintertime (November-April) precipitation in the Sierra Nevada are investigated. Precipitation events in the Sierra Nevada region occur mostly during wintertime, irrespective of station location (leeside or windside) and elevation. Most precipitation episodes in the region are associated with moist southwesterly winds (coming from the southwest direction) and also tend to occur when the 700-mbar temperature at the upwind direction is close to -2°C. This favored wind direction and temperature signify the importance of both moisture transport and orographic lifting in augmenting precipitation in the region. By utilizing the observed dependency of the precipitation upon the upper air conditions, a linear model is formulated to quantify the precipitation observed at different sites as a function of moisture transport. The skill of the model increases with timescale of aggregation, reaching more than 50% variance explained at an aggregation period of 5-7 days. This indicates that upstream air moisture transport can be used to estimate the precipitation totals in the Sierra Nevada region.

What we know about Northern California extreme rainfall events — An HPC perspective

Norman W. (Wes) Junker
Senior Forecaster
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD

Abstract:

[Abstract not available]

Characterizing Precipitation Forecast Errors for the Folsom Lake Watershed

Theresa Carpenter, P.E.
Hydrologic Engineer
Hydrologic Research Center
San Diego, CA

Abstract:

[Abstract not available]

Extreme Precipitation on the American River Watershed: Strategies for Improving Forecasts

F. Martin (Marty) Ralph, Ph.D.
Chief
Regional Weather and Climate Applications Division
NOAA, Environmental Technology Laboratory
Boulder, CO

Abstract:

[Abstract not available]

2003 Sponsors